CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-03-17T11:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37872/-1
CME Note: Arrival Notes: Initial interplanetary shock seen at DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-21T01:42Z (ACE magnetic field data gap from 2025-03-21T04:00Z to 2025-03-21T09:48Z) characterized by rapid magnetic field rise from 3 to 6 nT, rapid increase in solar wind velocity from 380 km/s to 430 km/s, and simultaneous rises in solar wind density and temperature. A second magnetic field jump >10nT is observed at 2025-03-21T10:10Z, from around 9nT to 12nT with Bz initially mostly northward. In other solar wind components, a small but distinct speed jump from 370 km/s to 390 km/s, brief density spike from 15 p/cc to 22.9 p/cc, returning to 10 p/cc, and a minimal spike in temperature are observed with this second Bt spike. || CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-03-17T11:36Z. Also seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C3 but not visible in STEREO A COR2A imagery (where it would be near center disk from the perspective of STEREO A). The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around N12W30 which starts around 2025-03-17T10:36Z and is best seen in SDO AIA 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-21T01:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-20T15:30Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.5
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 66.92 hour(s)
Difference: 10.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-03-18T06:47Z
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